lessons from 1918 and speculation on bird flu

To us as individuals, of course, it doesn't -- we don't control the course of a virus' evolution.

But Ewald does discuss the 1918 flu virus. According to him, that virus was so exceptionally deadly because it evolved in the trenches of Europe during World War I.

And not really for the obvious reasons that the men were hungry and stressed out due to the war -- but because soldiers sick with the flu still came into contact with many other soldiers.

They lay in trenches close to all other soldiers. Until transported out in an overcrowded truck or train car. To an overcrowded hospital room.

Therefore, that influenza virus was rewarded for evolving into a hugely virulent disease. Although it sickened thousands of soldiers, they could not retreat to a bed away from everybody but immediate family. They were kept in close contact with healthy soldiers, wounded soldiers and soldiers sick with other diseases.

We are not in a world war situation now. So does that mean that bird flu will not remain as high fatal as it is now (over 50% of its human victims have died so far)?

Nobody knows for sure.

But I believe that there's another factor at stake.

Maybe the 1918 flu virus evolved into a highly virulent strain in the trenches of war-torn Europe -- but it still spread around the world to many places at peace. From Spain (which was unjustly accused of causing the disease) to remote Arctic Eskimo villages and remote south Pacific islands.

However, many cities in the developing countries of Latin America, Africa and Asia are extremely dense and crowded. Most of you reading this have no idea how many people can live in a maze of corrugated iron, broken glass and rusty wire. I have seen such neighborhoods, and they are incredibly poor -- yet home to millions of people.

If bird flu spreads into the poor neighborhoods of the dense mega-cities, it will find many victims.

My guess is, that when people in such areas start catching a contagious form of bird flu, they will not seek medical treatment, because they can't afford it. They will lie down at home -- which means being in close contact not only with the family members they live with, but all the neighbors who stop in and visit. They do not have separate bedrooms or even beds. So they will just have to lay in a corner and struggle for breath.

The people most likely to be taken for treatment are children, who are particularly vulnerable and the ones most parents will want to treat. They are also the people who can spread the virus most easily. So it will then spread to the clinics.

Once the pandemic is widespread and known, the local government may be organized enough to attempt to pick up all the cases and isolate them. So bird flu patients will be taken away in trucks and sent to overcrowded hospitals.

Many governments will be overwhelmed by the situation and may not even be organized enough to collect the dead bodies. Then the sick and the dead will continue to infect the general population.

Though at some point many of those people may well flee to rural areas or at least avoid anybody who seems sick.

I'm not up on the location of all bird flu victims to date. The only ones I know of that were city residents, were in Hong Kong, a relatively wealthy city. Other bird flu victims seem to have lived in rural areas where they come into contact with lots of chickens.

Therefore, I must conclude that although it hasn't happened yet, evolutionary biology does not rule out the evolution of a highly virulent strain of contagious bird flu. Even though we don't have a world war going on in Europe.