Up to 25% bird flu in Indonesia back yard poultry

Here's a good overview of some of the problems we face in controlling the spread of the H5N1 avian influenza virus, particularly in Indonesia.

A survey found the H5N1 virus in 27% of chickens in flocks and caged, in some of Indonesia's most densely populated areas. The methodology of the survey is given, so we don't really know how widespread the problem really is, but I suggest that if even a mediocre survey can find 27% H5N1 infection in chickens anywhere in the country, that country's got a big problem.

Yes, given Indonesia's weird and widespread geography, there're probably plenty of provinces of that country where avian flu is nowhere to be found at all.

But we know from the hospital admissions of bird flu patients that the virus is spreading to people in ever-greater numbers in highly populated areas.

And of course, highly populated areas with bird flu are what we should fear the most. Because if the virus starts spreading from person to person and mutates into a strain that expedites that contagion, it will happen fastest the more victims it can easily find close by.

Therefore, pandemic influenza likes population density of victims.

And the more the virus spreads, whether in chickens or people, the greater the likelihood that it will eventually mutate into a highly contagious but still lethal strain.



Bird flu in up to 25% of Indonesian back yard poultry


Bird Flu Complications -- Encephalitis


Indonesia Bird Flu
Indonesia Bird Flu