Surviving the problems caused by a bird flu pandemic

The UN World Health Organization (WHO) has set up its
headquarters as a global command center to fight the
bird flu pandemic once it breaks out.

This bird flu news story puts WHO's plan to have
"flu-casters" broadcast up to the minute
flu news was made the made point of the story.

Presumably it'll be a new satellite or cable TV
channel and will be available online as well.

But I think it's more interesting that WHO has
been "gaming" pandemic scenarios -- and that based
on the results of the pandemic simulations they've
run, providing basic services to the general
public will be more important than providing
healthcare to the sick.

(By "important," I assume they mean -- will save
more lives.

If you think about the implications, that's pretty
scary. They more than bear out my own reading and
thinking -- that if bird flu incapacitates enough
people in key industries, that will create a
hardship greater than the flu itself.

Restrictions on travel and shipping would severely
limit the amount of gasolene and food available
in our stores. A shortage of electrical workers
could cause a local blackout leading to more
damage to the electrical grids and affecting
power from far away.

And what about nuclear reactors? They don't require
a lot of people to run them, but those people do
have to be well-trained, so if half of them came
down with bird flu that could cause a terrible
disaster. They can't be instantly replaced by
just any warm body willing to work there.

Same thing applies to natural gas pipelines and
water -- and with water, the sewer system.

Cell phones could replace telephone landlines for
a time -- as long as there's electricity to
recharge them!

The 1918 flu did not cause such major disruptions,
at least in the U.S. But I think people then
were used to being more self-sufficient than
people are now. They'd been through years of war
already.

Plus, they could cut themselves off from the
rest of the world more easily than would be
possible now.

In 1918 even major cities got most of their milk,
eggs, meat, fruits and vegetables from local
farmers. That's no longer true at all, at least
in the U.S.

Of course, developing countries are not so
dependent on all these services as developed
countries are.

Many people are used to intermittent power
blackouts. The poor in the slums and barrios
ringing these cities do not have access to
clean water now.

However, they are dependent on transportation of
food from the countryside. Even now, the poor in
big cities in the developing world are feeling
the pain of high gas prices -- because their
food still has to be trucked into the city
from the farms.

Major cities in Asia, Africa and South America
could see mass starvation in the event of a
bird flu pandemic.

However, living in a rural area in a developing
country could be one of the best places to
survive a bird flu pandemic.

They're used to not having electricity and to
living "light on the planet" as some
environmentalists put it. Their water may not be
clean but they'll still have access to it -- and
to whatever food they can scratch from the
ground.

Also, in rural areas it's easier to isolate
yourself and your family -- you may already
live a long way from your neighbors, even in
densely populated countries.

Plus, I think the social fabric is stronger.
People know each other and therefore will be
less likely to devolve into gang criminality
to prey on their neighbors. (Except for
areas where there are ethnic conflicts -- those
are like are likely to break out into
violence during the stress of a bird flu
pandemic.)

I'm afraid gang violence i very likely in the major
cities -- where drug gangs are already
in power and police use their authority to
extort money. If they don't have a backup
force to reinforce their authority, they
will just stay out of the way.

In any case, WHO seems to agree with me that
in the event of a pandemic you must plan for
your survival in all ways -- not just
medically, although that's very important too.

For more information, go to:

Save your family from bird flu